This paper is intended to guide planners and policymakers in Ethiopia in examining the interrelations between economic development objectives, water resources, and water-related climate risks. This paper builds upon World Resources Institute’s development of a baseline water risk model for Ethiopia by applying a scenario planning approach. Based on Ethiopia’s recent 10-YDP, we call attention to where economic development goals appear out of balance with water availability, putting those goals and development efforts at risk. We highlight planning, policy, and practice shifts that could help address this imbalance and better address water and water-related climate risks.

Key Findings:

  • Ethiopia’s rainfall is highly variable and unevenly distributed across the country. Climate change is intensifying floods and droughts and increasing uncertainty. Meanwhile, growing populations and economic development are increasing demand for water even as many still lack safe water access.
  • In Ethiopia, climate action has increasingly been integrated with economic planning processes, including the identification of priorities for water-related climate resilience. However, national planning neither adequately considers underlying water resource requirements nor their vulnerability to growing water stress and climate shocks.
  • Decision-makers must be proactive to prevent development gains from being undermined by increasing water challenges. Our analysis of the recent 10-Year Development Plan (10-YDP) found that current economic development targets increase water stress and climate vulnerability if these interconnected challenges are not well managed. Water use efficiency improvements alone are not enough. Decisionmakers should prioritize strategies that increase resilience to climate shocks as well as strategic macroeconomic shifts to avert unsustainable development paths.
  • Strengthening institutional capacity for cross-sectoral and multilevel water-sensitive planning and governance can help to better align Ethiopia’s economic trajectory with freshwater systems.